The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses

Characteristics and propagation of airgun pulses in shallow water with implications for effects on small marine mammals

Airguns used in seismic surveys are among the most prevalent and powerful anthropogenic noise sources in marine habitats. They are designed to produce most energy below 100 Hz, but the pulses have also been reported to contain medium-to-high frequency components with the potential to affect small marine mammals, which have their best hearing sensitivity at higher frequencies. In shallow water environments, inhabited by many of such species, the impact of airgun noise may be particularly challenging to assess due to complex propagation conditions. To alleviate the current lack of knowledge on the characteristics and propagation of airgun pulses in shallow water with implications for effects on small marine mammals, we recorded pulses from a single airgun with three operating volumes (10 in3, 25 in3 and 40 in3) at six ranges (6, 120, 200, 400, 800 and 1300 m) in a uniform shallow water habitat using two calibrated Reson 4014 hydrophones and four DSG-Ocean acoustic data recorders. We show that airgun pulses in this shallow habitat propagated out to 1300 meters in a way that can be approximated by a 18log(r) geometric transmission loss model, but with a high pass filter effect from the shallow water depth. Source levels were back-calculated to 192 dB re µPa2s (sound exposure level) and 200 dB re 1 µPa dB Leq-fast (rms over 125 ms duration), and the pulses contained substantial energy up to 10 kHz, even at the furthest recording station at 1300 meters. We conclude that the risk of causing hearing damage when using single airguns in shallow waters is small for both pinnipeds and porpoises. However, there is substantial potential for significant behavioral responses out to several km from the airgun, well beyond the commonly used shut-down zone of 500 meters

AgentSeal : agent-based model describing movement of marine central-place foragers

Acknowledgement This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 746602. GA and SB have been partly funded by Gemini Wind park and the NWO (project ALWPP.2017.003). We would like to thank J. Grecian, D. Thomson, M. Fedak, M. Carter, D. Russell, A. Hall, J. Ransijn, H. Vance and M. Civil for help in model design.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The ODD protocol for describing agent-based and other simulation models: A second update to improve clarity, replication, and structural realism

© 2020, University of Surrey. All rights reserved. The Overview, Design concepts and Details (ODD) protocol for describing Individual-and Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is now widely accepted and used to document such models in journal articles. As a standardized document for providing a consistent, logical and readable account of the structure and dynamics of ABMs, some research groups also find it useful as a workflow for model design. Even so, there are still limitations to ODD that obstruct its more widespread adoption. Such limitations are discussed and addressed in this paper: the limited availability of guidance on how to use ODD; the length of ODD documents; limitations of ODD for highly complex models; lack of sufficient details of many ODDs to enable reimplementation without access to the model code; and the lack of provision for sections in the document structure covering model design ratio-nale, the model’s underlying narrative, and the means by which the model’s fitness for purpose is evaluated. We document the steps we have taken to provide better guidance on: structuring complex ODDs and an ODD summary for inclusion in a journal article (with full details in supplementary material; Table 1); using ODD to point readers to relevant sections of the model code; update the document structure to include sections on model rationale and evaluation. We also further advocate the need for standard descriptions of simulation experiments and argue that ODD can in principle be used for any type of simulation model. Thereby ODD would provide a lingua franca for simulation modelling

Element concentrations, histology and serum biochemistry of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) and shorthorn sculpins (Myoxocephalus scorpius) in northwest Greenland

The increasing exploratory efforts in the Greenland mineral industry, and in particular, the proposed rare earth element (REE) mining projects, requires an urgent need to generate data on baseline REE concentrations and their potential environmental impacts. Herein, we have investigated REE concentrations in anadromous Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) and shorthorn sculpins (Myoxocephalus scorpius) from uncontaminated sites in Northwest Greenland, along with the relationships between the element concentrations in gills and liver, and gill histology and serum biochemical parameters. Concentrations of arsenic, silver, cadmium, cerium, chromium, copper, dysprosium, mercury, lanthanum, neodymium, lead, selenium, yttrium, and zinc in gills, liver and muscle are presented. No significant statistical correlations were observed between element concentrations in different organs and gill histology or serum biochemical parameters. However, we observed positive relationships between age and histopathology, emphasizing the importance of including age as a co-variable in histological studies of fish. Despite no element-induced effects were observed, this study is considered an important baseline study, which can be used as a reference for the assessment of impacts of potential future REE mine sites in Greenland

Communicating complex ecological models to non-scientist end users

Complex computer models are used to predict how ecological systems respond to changing environ- mental conditions or management actions. Communicating these complex models to non-scientists is challenging, but necessary, because decision-makers and other end users need to understand, accept, and use the models and their predictions. Despite the importance of communicating effectively with end users, there is little guidance available as to how this may be achieved. Here, we review the challenges typically encountered by modellers attempting to communicate complex models and their outputs to managers and other non-scientist end users. We discuss the implications of failing to communicate effec- tively in each case. We then suggest a general approach for communicating with non-scientist end users. We detail the specific elements to be communicated using the example of individual-based models, which are widely used in ecology. We demonstrate that despite their complexity, individual-based models have characteristics that can facilitate communication with non-scientists. The approach we propose is based on our experiences and methods used in other fields, but which until now have not been synthesised or made broadly available to ecologists. Our aim is to facilitate the process of communicating with end users of complex models and encourage more modellers to engage in it by providing a structured approach to the communication process. We argue that developing measures of the effectiveness of communication with end users will help increase the impact of complex models in ecology

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics